(Georgia Recorder) – Georgia Power predicts the state will lead the nation’s second industrial revolution over the next decade, led by artificial intelligence-enhancing data centers that could triple the state’s energy consumption.

According to Georgia Power forecasts, the company’s projected load growth will triple from 12,000 megawatts by mid-2030, consistent with the state’s steadily improving economic outlook, which the company points to when calling for a significant expansion of its energy capacity.

“The latest data continues to support Georgia Power’s expectation for continued and robust economic growth in Georgia and the timing of new bulk loads,” the company’s Nov. 18 economic development forecast said. “The pipeline of committed and potential economic development projects continues to grow.”

The Georgia Public Service Commission is scheduled to vote on the company’s long-term plans next year. The five-member board regulates the state’s utilities and decides whether to build new natural gas plants, whether to add more solar power capacity and how much more electricity customers will be charged if the company passes on rising costs.

Georgia Power estimates that about 90 large industrial projects could be built in Georgia by the end of the decade. Georgia Power has received commitments to buy its power from about 70 potential data center facilities if they are built in the Peach State.

But clean energy advocates are among the knowledgeable critics who express skepticism about Georgia Power’s planned slate of large data center commitments, questioning the accuracy of energy demand forecasts for the next few years as well as the actual energy consumption of new data centers, according to the company.

Georgia Power will outline its proposals to meet projected energy needs in its 2025 Integrated Resource Plan, a three-year operating forecast scheduled to be submitted to the Georgia PSC in late January. The filing will begin a hearing process before state regulators and interested parties, typically featuring expert opinions from Georgia Power and consumer and environmental advocates, to plan the utility’s energy future.

As of Sept. 30, Georgia Power said the total pipeline of economic development projects expected through the mid-2030s has increased by 12,200 megawatts to 36,500 megawatts, with large-scale facilities accounting for 34,600 megawatts. All 25 committed major projects are expected to be operational by the end of 2028 or sooner, according to the utility’s quarterly report.

“Thirteen of these projects have broken ground and 12 remain in the construction phase,” the report said. “This evidence clearly shows that these high-volume customers are materializing and making progress without significant delays.”

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, centers use 10 to 50 times as much electricity as the average commercial building.

A 2024 report from the Barclays Equity Research team estimates that data centers account for 3.5% of U.S. electricity consumption today, and power consumption by these facilities could exceed 5.5% in 2027 and 9% in 2035.

Maggie Shober, research director at the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy, said she has concerns about the level of commitment Georgia Power is securing through the planned new data centers. Companies are committed to using Georgia Power as their electricity supplier, but there is no guarantee they will build a data center in the state.

“While these are scary numbers, I think there is a lot of speculation, particularly in the data center industry, where people and companies interested in flipping data center sites are scrambling to get into that queue. I think many of these will ultimately never come to light. I think it will be a challenge to figure out which ones and how do we determine that?”

After decades of almost non-existent electricity demand growth in the US, the artificial intelligence revolution is expected to more than double data center electricity demand by 2030 based on current grid capacity, according to the Barclays report.

“Unlike other industries or energy-consuming activities that place fluctuating demands on the grid depending on the time of day or year, which can be managed to maintain overall reliability and capacity, AI operations are an ‘always-on’ demand,” said Barclays senior research analysts Will Thompson and Betty Jiang wrote in the August report. “Data centers must operate continuously, 24/7, to function for users. In fact, AI energy demand can be viewed as a constant peak, resulting in an overall higher peak power demand across the grid.

“Given the current focus on building data center capacity, which prioritizes secure access to electricity over certain fuel types, meeting increasing electricity demand while reducing emissions is likely to be a huge challenge for network operators,” the Barclays report said .

RELATED State energy regulators approve Georgia Power’s plan to use fossil fuels to power data centers

In April, the Georgia Public Service Commission approved Georgia Power’s plans to expand its generating capacity by increasing its reliance on fossil fuels and adding more renewable energy by 2025. The company’s integrated resource plan will be the next significant development since then.

Georgia Power expects the updated plans will save the typical residential customer about $2.89 on their monthly bills from 2026 to 2028.

“At Georgia Power, our customers are at the heart of everything we do and we are unwavering in our commitment to providing them with clean, safe, reliable and affordable energy,” Georgia Power CFO Aaron Abramovitz said in April.

Federal regulators have already approved the company’s request for natural gas or oil generators and solar batteries to meet rising demand from data centers and other large industrial users over the next decade. Several clean energy groups have warned regulators against allowing Georgia Power to build three fossil fuel burning plants at the old Yates fossil fuel plant in Coweta County.

Concerns remain for clean energy advocates like the Southern Environmental Law Center, concerned about what Georgia Power’s upcoming application will mean for the state’s energy future. The company also received the green light from state regulators to delay the retirement of its Bowen coal-fired power plants in Bartow County and Scherer in Monroe County.

If Georgia Power’s projected electricity needs are insufficient, the company would still reap the financial benefits of adding new energy sources, said Jennifer Whitfield, SELC’s senior attorney.

“If you over-project and don’t actually have to meet those demands, it’s not Georgia Power shareholders who are going to pay for it,” Whitfield said. “They will be Georgia Power customers.

“This is a particular problem with overbuilding gas-fired power plants because the cost of gas-fired power plants is for the fuel and those costs are passed directly on to customers,” Whitfield said. “George Power customers in particular have seen a number of increases. They had a rate increase. They had raises at Plant Vogtle. The biggest increase they have seen in recent years is actually due to fuel costs.”

The Barclays research report found that sustainability appears to be a lower priority for the majority of data center companies.

“Data center developers are prioritizing properties with access to untapped energy sources, water, labor and favorable regulations,” the report said. “With the current focus on building data center capacity that prioritizes secure access to electricity over certain fuel types, meeting increasing electricity demand while reducing emissions is likely to be an enormous challenge for grid operators,” the report said .

Whitfield said the commission has an opportunity to be creative in requiring Georgia Energy to diversify its sustainable energy portfolio. The company’s plans include some positive aspects, she said, such as expanding solar energy and programs that benefit seniors who are on fixed incomes.

“Will this be the moment when we as Georgians decide who we want to be? “What kind of energy future do we want to have?” Whitfield said.